Annual maximum and minimum temperatures in Kashmir Valley have steadily increased at rates of approximately 0.02°C per year over the past few years, putting the farmers and those associated with agriculture in the region in dire straits with this warming trend observed across all seasons but particularly strong during winter and spring.
The plains and mountainous regions of Kashmir are warming faster than foothills and Karewa areas, with Srinagar (a floodplain) showing the highest rate of increase, partly due to urban heat island effects.
Data in possession of the news agency—Kashmir News Observer (KNO) indicate a notable temperature jump around 1996-1997, with recent decades being warmer than the earlier years analyzed.
This rise in temperature is linked to worrying changes in agricultural patterns, including early flowering of crops like apples and oilseeds, which reduces yields and affects crop quality.
While temperatures rise, the Kashmir Valley is experiencing a sharp decline in precipitation. The annual rainfall has decreased by about 5 mm per year, with the most significant drops occurring in mountainous and foothill regions—areas critical for glacier recharge and water supply. Seasonal rainfall has fallen markedly in spring and winter, seasons vital for maintaining glaciers and groundwater.
This reduction in rainfall threatens the perennial flow of major rivers such as the Chenab, Jhelum, and Indus, which depend on glacier melt and spring precipitation.
Farmers report that diminished snowfall and erratic rains have led to water shortages for irrigation, particularly impacting the traditional paddy (rice) cultivation during the summer Kharif season.
Furthermore, the combined scientific data and farmer insights have highlighted the urgent need for adaptive strategies in Kashmir Valley agriculture. Rising temperatures and declining rainfall disrupt the growth cycles of key crops such as apples, saffron, walnuts, barley, and pulses.
The study has warned that without immediate adaptation measures, including water resource management and crop diversification, the livelihoods of smallholder farmers and food security in the Kashmir Valley could be severely compromised—(KNO)
